Update: WSJ Reporting Suggest Growing Republican Support May Shield Clean Energy Incentives

In our previous analysis of potential changes to renewable energy policy under a new administration, we highlighted several factors that might prevent dramatic rollbacks of clean energy incentives—particularly the widespread economic benefits these programs are already delivering to Republican-led states. Recent reporting from The Wall Street Journal reinforces this view, suggesting that campaign promises to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) may face significant resistance from within the Republican party itself.

As we noted previously, 18 House Republicans had already voiced support for maintaining the IRA’s clean energy provisions, emphasizing their positive impact on jobs and investment in conservative districts. The Wall Street Journal’s reporting reveals this sentiment runs even deeper. For example, Senator Kevin Cramer (R-ND) is quoted as saying that “there are too many things in there that are too important to too many constituencies” to throw out the law.

This resistance to repeal extends beyond just elected officials. Major energy industry players, including traditional fossil fuel companies and Republican donors, have invested heavily in IRA-supported projects. For instance, according to The Wall Street Journal, Harold Hamm, a prominent Republican donor and transition team advisor, has invested $250 million in an ethanol carbon-capture project that would benefit from IRA tax credits. Similarly, energy companies like Occidental Petroleum and Energy Transfer have committed billions to carbon capture projects incentivized by the law.

In short, it appears that some of the practical and political hurdles to repeal that we previously identified—including the complexity of unwinding existing programs and the wide geographic distribution of clean energy investments—are being reinforced by a growing coalition of Republican lawmakers and industry leaders who see value in maintaining key aspects of the program.

While certain provisions may still face scrutiny, particularly as Congress looks for revenue to offset potential tax cut extensions, the WSJ’s reporting suggests that wholesale repeal of the IRA appears increasingly unlikely. Changes to clean energy policy may be more evolutionary than revolutionary, regardless of campaign rhetoric to the contrary.