Several lawyers from GreeneHurlocker’s attended CHESSA’s Solar Focus conference last month in Arlington, and one overarching theme stood out: despite the headwinds created by the phasedown of federal tax incentives, the mood in the room was unmistakably optimistic.

For much of the past two years, solar development in Virginia has been shaped by two competing forces. On one side: accelerating power demand, driven largely by hyperscale data centers and AI infrastructure. On the other: expiring federal incentives and uneven local land-use approvals that often determine whether projects get built at all.

Last Fall, as judged by the “vibe” at Solar Focus, new data, and our own experience working with solar clients, those lines began to converge in a more constructive direction.

Why Confidence is Growing Even as Incentives Decline

The July 2026 phaseout of key federal incentives cast a shadow over the industry through the first half of 2025. But at Solar Focus, the consensus was clear: demand growth is strong enough to outweigh those concerns. The phaseout is accelerating timelines, but the Confidence is coming from the market.

Data centers and AI workloads are now the dominant drivers of load growth in Virginia. Utilities cannot defer these needs, and solar—fast to deploy and clean—remains one of the few resources capable of responding at the required scale and speed. Developers are leaning into this demand and becoming more creative with financing, siting, and engagement strategies.

In short, the market is pulling solar forward in a way that federal incentives used to.

Local Approvals Still Shape the Market, But 2025 Looks Different

As Jared Burden noted in his recent article for Virginia Business, the most consequential battleground for solar development in Virginia remains local. Federal trends may set the economic incentives, but county boards, planning commissions, and zoning ordinances still have the power to determine a project’s fate.

2024 showcased that reality in stark terms: for the first time, Virginia localities rejected more megawatts of solar than they approved.

But a recent deep-dive analysis by Dwayne Yancey of The Cardinal—drawing on the newly updated Weldon Cooper Center Solar Database—shows that 2025 marks a meaningful reversal.

Here are some of the key data points:

• In 2024, localities rejected 1,378 MW, more than the 1,095 MW approved.
• In 2025 (through September), the pattern flipped: 2,022 MW approved vs. 711 MW rejected.
• The number of projects approved is down, but project size is way up, which matters far more for meeting the growing load.
• The counties rejecting the most megawatts are often the same counties approving the most—suggesting discernment, not blanket resistance.

One of the most helpful insights from The Cardinal’s reporting is the reminder that rejected megawatts do not vanish. Many projects resurface with revised designs, alternative siting, or enhanced community engagement—exactly the kind of work Jared emphasizes in his Virginia Business piece. The bottom line is that while Virginia counties are still saying “no,” they are saying “yes” more often, and to larger, better-designed projects.

This aligns with what we see every day in our work:

• Projects succeed when developers invest early in community outreach.
• Local officials respond well to partners who provide clear, plain-language explanations.
• Engagement upstream—before ordinances are locked in—is critical

Where Things Stand as 2025 Comes to a Close

In sum, here are a few final takeaways and observations about Virginia solar as we gear up for a new year:

• Demand fundamentals are stronger than ever, driven by data centers and AI.
• Federal incentives are declining, which is accelerating development timelines (further boosting the market in the short term).
• Local approvals are trending in a more positive direction, especially for large, well-planned projects.

The result is that Virginia’s solar market is ending 2025 in a more optimistic position than where it began.

Looking forward, success in Virginia’s solar sector will hinge on navigating a landscape where market demand is high, timelines are compressed, and local engagement is essential.

GreeneHurlocker looks forward to continuing to support developers, data centers, investors, and landowners across this evolving terrain. We’re encouraged by what the latest data—and the industry’s own sentiment—suggest about where Virginia solar is headed in 2026 and beyond.